Epidemiological Modeling

Note. The text below is part 4 of the paper titled "Epidemiological Modeling of Computer Virus Propagation." This is now Chapter II - Epidemiological Modelling.

Growth and decay are two subjects that can be mathematically modeled. These two are natural phenomena that occur in both the living and the non-living things. Examples of living things are human population and those biological diseases like HIV and malaria. Meanwhile, examples of non-living things where these occur are the spread of rumors and the simple but not so obvious subject of waiting-in-line¹⁰. The computer virus propagation is viewed to have growth and decay periods. As such, this paper adopted the aforementioned growth and decay phenomena in modeling this propagation.

The paper patterned the model for computer virus propagation with the spread of biological a disease. The widespread infection of people from a biological disease is often called an epidemic. Being an epidemic, the model used to describe the spread of a biological disease is often called epidemiological model.

The spread of a computer virus (although non-biological) is typically viewed as similar to a biological one (the justification on this is discussed in the next section). Hence in the spread of a computer virus, epidemiological modeling is conventionally applied.

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¹⁰Daniel P. Maki, Mathematical Models and Applications (New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 1973), 356.

Importance of modeling the spread of computer viruses

Note. The text below is part 3 of the paper titled "Epidemiological Modeling of Computer Virus Propagation."

It is usually difficult to prevent the launch of a new computer virus.  A new virus is usually not remedied by existing anti-viruses. The new program of this virus must be studied first before an antivirus program can be developed. Once launched, the propagation of the virus must least be controlled. Before effective control strategies can be presented, it is important to understand clearly how the computer virus propagates in the network⁷.  This can be achieved by a creating mathematical model of the propagation. The model helps in predicting future threats and in developing new measures to contain the virus.

The mathematical model needs to be well-designed and reliable. It must be accurate in its predictions and must be as general as possible, while remaining as simple and as low-cost as possible. The best model is one that is capable of detecting unknown viruses and their mutation⁸.

Objectives in developing a mathematical model

This paper’s objective is to develop a simple mathematical model that will describe the spread of computer virus under two scenarios. The first scenario is where a new virus gets launched to a group of interconnected computers. Being a new virus, the computers are assumed to have no antivirus to prevent the infection. The virus is said to be propagating freely.

The second scenario is where the virus gets launched to a group of interconnected computers at the time when the computers already have the necessary antivirus to cure the infection and prevent re-infection. The virus here is no longer propagating freely. 

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⁷Giuseppe Serazzi and Stefano Zanero, “Computer Virus Propagation Models,” Dipartimento di Eletrronica e Informazione, Politecnico Milano (Milan, Italy, 2005), 1.

⁸Giuseppe Serazzi and Stefano Zanero, 2.

The economics of a computer virus

Note. The text below is part 2 of the paper titled "Epidemiological Modeling of Computer Virus Propagation." It is still part of Chapter 1 - Introduction.

Computer viruses have caused enormous economic losses.  The computer virus named “I Love You” was reported to be the most damaging virus ever released. Nine days after its release by a Filipino student in May 2000, this virus infected some 50 million computer systems at a cost estimated to be in the region of $5B⁵.  

Viral attacks have never been more alarming. Aside from the traditional virus, computer threats now include worms, Trojan horses, and bombs – a time or event triggered computer virus. Also, there is the so-called blended threat which is a mix of two or more threats.

The huge economic losses brought about by computer viruses justify the need for computers to be secured from all possible threats⁶. But securing the computer system is more difficult given the widespread use of the Internet. The Internet (especially its social networking sites) made it possible for people across the globe to communicate and share files easily. 

It is in file sharing that the computer virus gets propagated – the greater the number of files shared, the more widespread and devastating the computer virus can be.

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⁵Seemab, “The Most Dangerous Computer Viruses in History”, Product USP-Unique Selling Point, < http://www.productusp.com> (December 9, 2009),

⁶A. Martin del Rey, “A Computer Virus Spread Model Based on Cellular Automata on Graphs,” Distributed Computing, Artificial Intelligence, Bioinformatics, Soft Computing, and Ambient Assisted Living, (Salamanca Spain, 2009), 505.

Epidemiological Modeling of Computer Virus Propagation

Note. The text below is part of the introduction of the paper titled "Epidemiological Modeling of Computer Virus Propagation." The paper was written and submitted to the School of Graduate Studies of the Mapua Institute of Technology in compliance with the requirements of the subject Advanced Engineering Mathematics.

This paper begins by describing what a computer virus is and what it can do. The computer virus is a hidden and malicious code that is attached to a program or a file which is released when the program is executed or when the file is opened. Then, it looks for clean files and tries to attach itself to them too¹. The virus spreads when an infected file in one computer is copied to and executed in another unprotected or unsecured computer.

The computer virus is malicious as it usually prevents the infected computer from being operated normally². For one, the computer is rendered unusable as the virus keeps the processor component busy. In other instances, the virus deleted or corrupted some files needed to run computer programs³. The virus can also prevent the computer from accessing such external networks as the Internet, and intra- and extranets. There are, however, instances where the infected computer seems to operate normally but unknown to the user, the computer virus is browsing the computer’s memory looking for private information such credit card passwords⁴. These are just some of the consequences of computer viral attacks.

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¹Ida M. Flynn and Ann McIver McHoes, Understanding Operating Systems 4^th Edition (Singapore: Thomson Learning Asia, 2007), 351.

²A. Martin del Rey, “A Computer Virus Spread Model Based on Cellular Automata on Graphs,” Distributed Computing, Artificial Intelligence, Bioinformatics, Soft Computing, and Ambient Assisted Living, (Salamanca Spain, 2009), 506.

³Ida M. Flynn and Ann McIver McHoes, 352..

⁴Yu Zhang, Tao Li, and Renchao Qin, “Computer Virus Evolution Model Inspired by Biological DNA,” College of Computer Science, Sichuan University (China, 2008) , 943.

Preface to Bits and Bytes for Business blog

Hi. If you are someone who goes online hoping to sometimes find IT information which you can apply to your work life, then I welcome you to this blog.  This blog writes about the application of information technologies to business, small or otherwise.

                

      You might think I am either an IT expert or a business guru to be writing about these subjects. Honestly, I am neither of the two. You may even know more about these matters than I do. Honestly, I am just that someone who knows a little but wants to know more through reading, doing research, writing blogposts, and receiving feedback from them.

      You may wonder why I chose IT and business as subjects of my blog. For one, my interest in these subjects came after having developed some business application software in the company I worked for. I delighted in the experience as the software helped that company in many ways.

      This experience in software development is now becoming a passion. This desire to know more about  IT and computers gotten me into a computer engineering course. It has also gotten me into blogging!

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